当前激活权重
calibrated-20260728030119
Elo
0.55
近期状态
0.55
攻防
1.00
平局
1.40
上下文
1.00
市场
1.00
阵容
1.00
数据质量
1.00
不确定性
1.00
正在加载赛事数据
页面会在数据返回后自动更新。
正在加载赛事数据
页面会在数据返回后自动更新。
模型复盘
这里展示模型版本、历史样本表现、常见失误原因和待验证调整。所有调整都会以记录形式保留，不会覆盖赛前预测版本。
模型版本
calibrated-20260728030119
复盘样本
104
命中场次
37
命中率
35.6%
当前激活权重
Elo
0.55
近期状态
0.55
攻防
1.00
平局
1.40
上下文
1.00
市场
1.00
阵容
1.00
数据质量
1.00
不确定性
1.00
最近校准
状态
已应用
Brier Score
0.208
Log Loss
1.035
基于 104 条已复盘样本生成自动校准
校准说明
当前样本量较小，命中率只作为开发期复盘指标，不应作为准确率承诺。
已记录预测版本、推荐方向、实际结果和失误原因，避免赛后覆盖原始预测。
当前已启用 calibrated-20260728030119 权重版本，后续预测会读取该版本。
常见失误原因
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
Model should review rating balance, draw pressure, lineup changes, cards, injuries, and late tactical shifts.
调整候选
调整前
淘汰压力/节奏放缓因子权重 0.18
建议调整
建议在下一模型版本试验提升至 0.23
原因：历史复盘显示强队优势场景中平局概率被低估。
调整前
不确定因素数量达到 2 时标为中风险
建议调整
关键球员缺阵或首发未知时直接提高一个风险级别
原因：临场阵容变化对世界杯单场结果影响较大。